In Germany, the problem of undeclared work remains unsolved, and it seems that its extent is even greater than previously assumed. Should the unemployment rate rise, the situation could become even more dramatic.

In 2023, the size of the shadow economy is expected to rise to 463 billion euros, an increase of around 80 billion euros compared to 2022. These estimates come from an exclusive calculation by Friedrich Schneider, a renowned financial scientist, which is available to WELT AM SONNTAG.

The projected shadow economy will thus account for about 10.7 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Friedrich Schneider has long specialised in determining the volume of undeclared work.

Already at the beginning of the year, the expert had made a forecast that raised the size of the shadow economy to 443 billion euros. There is even the possibility that these figures will increase even further, especially due to rising unemployment figures. In fact, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) expects the unemployment rate to rise in the coming months.